When President Trump was recently asked whether the mid-terms are a referendum on his presidency, he replied:
“No, but I think I’m helping.”
Most people clearly believe that the mid-terms are all about Trump and are as such, a referendum on his presidency.
Most polls and observers believe that the Democrats will flip the 23 seats they need to win the House of Representatives.
The political analysis site Five Thirty Eight says:
- 6 in 7 chance (85.9 per cent) the Democrats will win the House of Representatives
- 1 in 7 chance (14.1 per cent) Republicans will hold the House of Representatives
Most polls and observers believe the Republicans will hold onto their slim majority in the Senate.
Five Thirty Eight says:
- 2 in 9 (21.9 per cent) the Democrats will win the Senate
- 7 in 9 (78.1 per cent) the Republicans will hold the Senate
The consequences of either the above happening are as follows:
Losing the House of Representatives:
The majority of the legislation begins in the House of Representatives, and if the Democrats were to take control, they would be able to significantly disrupt Trump’s agenda and even push their own.
The Republicans would no longer have the free-run to control the White House and congress.
Impeachment proceedings begin in the House of Representatives. To date the Democrats have not openly talked about this prior to the mid-term elections, with a few minor exceptions, if they are the majority when the new house sits in January they might begin to act very differently. A lot still depends on the outcome of the Robert Mueller investigation.
Losing the senate:
If the Democrats were to take control of the Senate they could begin to cause significant problems to Trump by calling hearings into his business interests, potential conflicts of interest, and much more including potentially looking into recently confirmed Supreme Court judge Brett Kavanaugh.
Trump often brags about his ability to help candidates whom he endorses, with the exceptions of Roy Moore, Rick Saccone and Ed Gilespie who all lost special elections. Trump will endorse the majority of the Republican candidates, if most of his candidates lose and the Republicans were to lose the House of Representatives or the Senate, he will be humiliated.
If the Republicans were to lose either the House of Representatives or the Senate, Trump will have to take some of the blame.
If the Republicans were to lose either the House or the Senate, Trump would be weakened. This would potentially open the door to an internal challenge from within the party to run against him the Republican primary for 2020. This is rare but has happened in the past, for example Ted Kennedy against Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Ronald Reagan against Gerald Ford in 1976.