Who will win control of the Senate?

Will the Republicans will keep control of the Senate or will the Democrats gain enough seats to take over?

Republicans currently hold the majority of seats in both chambers of Congress. The most recent polling suggests that Democrats will take back the House of Representatives, however the Republicans are likely to gain seats in the Senate. 

There are about 13 highly competitive Senate races. Out of those 13 races, nine states have a Democrat incumbent.

The Democrats have more seats up for re-election than the Republicans, and the majority of these seats are in states that voted overwhelmingly in favour of Trump in 2016. Trump won 10 out of 13 states with close Senate races.

Republicans have a 6 in 7 chance of keeping control of the Senate.

  • New Jersey – Robert Menendez (D)* holds a 9.2% spread over Bob Hugni (R) (Dem. HOLD)
  • Ohio – Sherrod Brown (D)* holds a 7.5% spread over Jim Ranacci (R) (Dem. HOLD)
  • Minnesota – Tina Smith (D)* holds a 7% spread over Karin Housley (R) (Dem. HOLD)
  • West Virginia – Joe Mancin (D)* holds a 5% spread over Patrick Morrisey (R) (Dem. HOLD)
  • Montana – Jon Tester (D)* holds a 4.5% spread over Matt Rosendale (R) (Dem. HOLD)
  • Florida – Bill Nelson (D)* holds a 3.3% spread over Rick Scott (R) (Dem. HOLD)
  • Indiana – Joe Donnelly (D)* holds a 0.4% spread over Mike Braun (R) (Dem. HOLD)
  • Nevada – Dean Heller (R)* is tied with Jacky Rosen (Rep. HOLD)
  • Arizona – Martha McSally (R)* holds a 0.2% spread over Krysten Sinema (D) (Rep. HOLD)
  • Missouri – Josh Hawley (R) holds a 0.6% spread over Claire McCaskill (D)* (Rep. GAIN)
  • Tennessee – Marsh Blackburn (R)* holds a 5.2% spread over Phil Bredesen (D) (Rep. HOLD)
  • Texas – Ted Cruz (R)* holds a 6% spread over Beto O’Rourke (D) (Rep. HOLD)
  • North Dakota – Kevin Cramer (R) holds a 11.4% spread over Heidi Heitkamp (D)* (Rep. GAIN)

Battle for the Senate - These Democrats need your votes!

Out of the 13 closest Senate races, current polling predicts:

  •  7 Democrat HOLDS
  •  0 Democrat GAINS
  •  2 Republican GAINS
  •  4 Republican HOLDS

This would suggest that the Republicans would increase their majority by 1 to 53-47.

To secure the working majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to secure very close races in WEST VIRGINIA (+5%), MONTANA (+4.5%), FLORIDA (+3.3%), INDIANA (+0.4%),and turn around the races in NEVADA (TIED), ARIZONA (-0.2%), MISSOURI (-0.6%),  and either TENNESSSEE (-5.2%) or TEXAS (-6%)

West Virginia: Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey

Who is the Democrat?

Joe Manchin was elected to the Senate in 2010. He was governor and secretary of state before that.

Who is the Republican?

Patrick Morrisey is the West Virginia State Attorney General

How much does the state like Trump?

Trump won in 2016, with 68 percent of the vote, and his approval rating is still 62 percent.

What’s interesting about this race?

Manchin has a strong history with the state. He was the only Democrat to vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh.

There’s a very strong anti-establishment sentiment in West Virginia, and there’s also and it can’t get any worse sentiment

What does the polling say?

Manchin has built lead of 5 points in the race.

Joe Mancin - 5 point lead in polls

Montana: Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale

Who is the Democrat?

Jon Tester was elected to the Senate in 2006. He’s pretty moderate, he has however been willing to confront Trump.

Who is the Republican?

Matt Rosendale who was first elected to Montana’s state legislature in 2010.

How much does the state like Trump?

Trump won in 2016, with 56 percent of the vote, and his approval rating is now 51 percent.

What’s interesting about this race?

Montanans like this guy. Tester helped sink the president’s Veterans Affair nominee, Ronny Jackson.

What does the polling say?

Tester is maintaining a 4.5-point lead in the polls.

Jon Tester - 4.5 point lead in polls

Florida: Bill Nelson vs. Rick Scott

Who is the Democrat?

Bill Nelson was elected to the Senate back in 2000.

Who is the Republican?

Rick Scott is a Republican Governer

How much does the state like Trump?

Trump won in 2016 by 49-47, and his approval rating is now 49 percent

What’s interesting about this race, anyway?

Scott has a huge amount of money and has outspent Nelson by a 4-to-1 margin.

Andrew Gillum, the Democratic nominee for governor and the first black Floridian to be nominated for governor, could help Nelson reclaim his Senate seat.

What does the polling say?

Nelson holds a lead of just 3.3 points.

 

Bill Nelson - 3.3 point lead in polls

Indiana: Joe Donnelly vs. Mike Braun

Who is the Democrat?

Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate in 2012. He is a former US representative.

Who is the Republican?

Mike Braun is a State legislator

How much does the state like Trump?

Trump won in 2016 with 56 percent of the vote, and his approval rating is now 50 percent

What’s interesting about this race?

Donnelly is another vulnerable Democrat who is running hard on preserving Obamacare’s protections for people with preexisting conditions.

What does the polling say?

Donnelly holds a lead of 0.4%

Joe Donnelly - 0.4 point lead in polls

Nevada: Jacky Rosen vs. Dean Heller

Who is the Democrat?

Representative Jacky Rosen was first elected to Congress in 2016.

Who is the Republican?

Dean Heller was elected to the Senate in 2011.

How much does the state like Trump?

Trump lost in 2016, he has 44 percent approval, and 52 percent disapproval rating.

What’s interesting about this race?

This is in a state that voted for Clinton, 48 percent to 46 percent, over Trump.

What does the polling say?

Heller and Rosen are tied

Jacky Rosen - Tied in polls

Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema vs. Martha McSally

Who is the Democrat?

Representative Kyrsten Sinema was elected in 2012. She served in the state legislature before that.

Who is the Republican?

Jeff Flake is retiring. Representative Martha McSally was elected in 2014

How much does the state like Trump?

Trump won in 2016 by 49-46, and his approval rating is now 47 percent and 50 percent disapproval.

What’s interesting about this race?

McSally revealed she was sexually abused in high school and emphasized her history as the first female fighter pilot in combat.

What does the polling say?

McSally holds a lead of just 0.2 points.

Krysten Sinema - 0.2 points behind in polls

Missouri: Claire McCaskill vs. Josh Hawley

Who is the Democrat?

Claire McCaskill was elected to the Senate in 2006.

Who is the Republican?

Josh Hawley is the State Attorney General

How much does the state like Trump?

Trump won in 2016 with 56 percent in 2016, and his approval rating is now 51 percent

What’s interesting about this race?

McCaskill is vulnerable, as evidenced by her approval rating, but a state GOP tainted by scandal could be a boost to her chances.

What does the polling say?

Hawley holds a lead of 1.4%

Claire Mccaskill - 1.4 points behind in the polls

Tennessee: Phil Bredesen vs. Marsha Blackburn

Who is the Republican?

Senator Bob Corker is retiring. Representative Marsha Blackburn was first elected back in 2002.

Who is the Democrat?

Former Gov. Phil Bredesen is a Former Governor who served two terms, leaving office in 2011.

How much does the state like Trump?

Trump has 58 percent approval and 38 percent disapproval.

What’s interesting about this race?

Bredesen has been out of politics for the better part of a decade.

What does the polling say?

Blackburn holds a lead of 5.2%

Phil Bredesen - 5.2 points behind in polls

Texas: Beto O’Rourke vs. Ted Cruz

Who is the Republican?

Senator Ted Cruz came closest to beating Trump in the 2016 primaries.

Who is the Democrat?

Representative Beto O’Rourke was first elected in 2012.

How much does the state like Trump?

Trump has a 51 percent approval and 45 percent disapproval rating.

What’s interesting about this race?

Cruz’s campaign is attacking O’Rourke for allegedly making his name sound more Hispanic, which a few people have pointed out was ironic for a guy whose first name is Rafael but goes by Ted.

O’Rourke is also raising a lot of money.

What does the polling say?

Cruz holds a lead of 6%

Beto O'Rourke - 6 points behind in polls

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp vs. Kevin Cramer

Who is the Democrat?

Heidi Heitkamp was elected to the Senate in 2012. She is a former state attorney general.

Who is the Republican?

Representative Kevin Cramer.

How much does the state like Trump?

Trump won in 2016, with 63 percent of the vote, he now has 52 percent approval and 44 percent disapproval.

What’s interesting about this race?

Cramer has allied himself closely with Trump, particularly on key state issues like energy.

What does the polling say?

Cramer holds a lead of 11.4%

Heidi Heitkamp - 11.4 points behind in polls

Whatever the result on November 6, Democrats will have an advantage come 2020.

Republicans will be defending significantly more seats than Democrats with 22 seats up for re-election. Thus, providing Democrats will more chances to gain seats and play an offensive strategy to regain control over the Senate. 

The 2018 midterm elections, as well as those in 2020, will have long-term crucial ramifications for the US. The future of the Supreme Court, immigration reform, reproductive rights and health care all depends who wins the Senate — and by how much. 

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